European Stability: By Bond, Bailout or Bankruptcy
Folks, yesterday, Jim Cramer interviewed Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on CNBC. I probably don’t need to remind you that I think Mr. Geithner is a little long in the tooth as far as that position is concerned, but he said something very important that I wanted to make sure you all caught: there is no way that our Fed, Germany, France or the rest of the world will let the EU fall apart.
I’ve been saying the same thing for a while now. Whether it’s by bond, bailout or bankruptcy, stability will return to Europe. And as that creeps into the market mentality more and more, we can finally start to focus on fundamentals again. Look at gold for evidence. If the world as we know it were going to end, gold would be about 500 points higher than it is right now.
So, what’s the strategy? It’s the same old inflation trade. In an environment where currencies are being systematically debased, buy everything. Remember: the ECB can’t print money. Our Fed can. So they’ll print up dollars and lend them to European banks through the Fed window via their U.S. subsidiaries. Essentially, the U.S. will continue to do the EU’s dirty work—and like it or not, you need to protect yourself.
Being long equities and commodities (with the exception of gold) is the key. If you do it right and actively manage your portfolio, two or three years down the road you’ll be happy you did.
Tim Gessel of Investor’s Business Daily was my guest on the show this morning. As usual, he shared some wonderful insight. One stock that he says really has his attention is New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU), which is still in a buying range and hasn’t quite yet broken out. He also mentioned that although we’re technically still in a rally mode, almost any hit of trouble can knock this market flat.
Be careful out there, and, as always, do your own homework and understand the risk involved in every investment and trade.