Two things I find very interesting are housing and interest rates, which are intertwined. This is definitely one of the things we need to keep an eye on. Folks, this is why I am bearish interest rates and bearish bonds. I think we are going to see interest rates increase and the price of bonds [...]
Recently, a Luddite Mentality has worked its way into the debates centered around High Frequency Trading (HFT) and the effect it might, or might not have, on the overall market. Let’s understand something right away: Not all HFT is the same. There needs to be a basic understanding of a strategy which now makes up an [...]
Folks, there are three distinct factors that are driving these markets right now: earnings, Europe and China. Let’s break it down, shall we? Earnings. I’ve talked a lot about the lowering of expectations for corporate earnings and how they might have gotten too low over the course of the last couple of months. I also [...]
Folks, so far in today’s session, the markets are trading mixed. This comes after a run-up of around 80 handles in the S&P over the last three days that has helped to restore a little confidence. So, too, did a better-than-expected jobs number this morning—nothing to jump up and down about, but considering the obstacles [...]
Well, folks, what can I say? The Europe situation is front and center again, and a plunge is taking place in both the markets here and across the pond. The political problems are resurfacing, and they cannot get to the point they need to get to, which is a Greek default. Today will be a [...]
Folks, the market looks like it might be in a bit of trouble today. I warned you earlier this week about end-of-month activity that would come into play—portfolio managers start playing with their positions and putting up window dressing to approve the appearance of their holdings. At the same time, Europe is still hanging on [...]
Folks, today is the first day of both the last week of the month and the last week of the 3rd quarter. In addition to the normal end-of-month activity, a great deal of OTC options and listed options activity comes due and goes off on Friday—it’s almost like a second expiration. The action and volatility [...]
Folks, as I write this, the yield on the 10-year is 1.7%, and the reason is because there is a ton of confusion out there in the marketplace. So much, in fact, that people are willing to go into a net-negative interest rate situation (at least for the short term) because of the uncertainty with [...]
Folks, last week I told you to look for hints that Germany would come to the rescue of the European Union, and today we got another one. The German Constitutional Court has upheld the legality of bailout packages for member nations stricken with debt. That’s good news for European banks that are holding that Greek [...]
Well, folks, how are you enjoying this volatility? I told you at the beginning of the week to expect quite a bit leading up to Jackson Hole today, and that prediction certainly has come true. Today is the day when all the central bankers gather to talk markets and monetary policy. This conference probably used [...]